Colorado’s 2025–26 ski season was one for the record books — and not in the way anyone hoped. Historically low snowpack, early closures, and a rapid spring melt left mountain communities parched and reservoirs running well below normal. But as the state moves into summer, the climate picture is starting to change — and for buyers watching Colorado’s mountain real estate market, that shift deserves attention.
What Went Wrong This Winter
La Niña conditions were the culprit. The climate pattern, driven by cooler-than-normal water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, typically delivers more snow to Colorado’s northern mountains. This year it didn’t. Instead, record warmth arrived early, snowpack vanished ahead of schedule, and drought restrictions followed. By the time the season wound down, Colorado had logged its worst snowpack year in recorded history.
The good news: La Niña is now in the rearview mirror.
A Super El Niño on the Horizon
According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, the odds of a super El Niño developing later in 2026 are increasing. El Niño — La Niña’s opposite, characterized by warmer Pacific water temperatures — has historically tilted conditions in Colorado’s favor, bringing wetter-than-average weather, particularly to southern parts of the state and during the fall and spring shoulder seasons.
Russ Schumacher, Colorado’s state climatologist and a professor at Colorado State University, puts it plainly: El Niño tilts the odds toward things being wetter. After multiple consecutive La Niña years, that shift is welcome news.
It’s worth noting that climate forecasting at this range carries real uncertainty. Scientists have only a handful of comparable strong El Niño years to study since 1950, and Schumacher is careful not to overpromise. But the directional signal is clear, and for Colorado — which has been running a moisture deficit for years — even a modest improvement in the winter outlook matters enormously.
The Nearer-Term Story: Monsoon Season
Before El Niño conditions potentially arrive, Coloradans should be watching this summer’s monsoon forecast, which Schumacher describes as the more immediate weather story to track.
Unlike ENSO patterns, which play out globally over months, monsoons are a regional phenomenon that arrives each summer as shifting winds pull moisture from the eastern Pacific and the Gulf of California into the Southwest. This year’s outlook points toward an active monsoon season running through July, August, and September — meaning daily afternoon thunderstorms across much of western and southeastern Colorado.
An active monsoon won’t refill the state’s reservoirs. The intense but brief rainfall events simply don’t deliver the volume that a deep mountain snowpack does. What monsoons can do is reduce wildfire risk, ease the demand on irrigation systems, and restore some ecological moisture to drought-stressed landscapes. For mountain property owners and communities that depend on summer tourism, that’s meaningful relief.
What This Means for Mountain Real Estate
The difficult 2025–26 season has underscored something that experienced mountain market observers already know: short-term weather cycles don’t drive long-term value in Colorado’s resort communities. Demand for well-positioned mountain properties has remained resilient through this challenging year, supported by limited inventory, a high proportion of cash buyers, and the enduring appeal of the Colorado mountain lifestyle.
What an improving weather outlook does is reinforce the long-term thesis. A strong El Niño winter in 2026–27 would restore snowpack, drive resort visitation, and remind buyers everywhere why Colorado’s mountains rank among the most desirable year-round destinations in the country. Properties acquired during a soft weather cycle — before that optimism is fully priced in — have historically represented some of the strongest entry points the market offers.
The climate is shifting. The fundamentals remain strong. And for buyers who have been watching from the sidelines, the window the current market is offering may be worth a closer look.
Interested in exploring Colorado mountain properties? Contact the team at Hoffman West Real Estate to learn what’s available in today’s market.
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